2023-11-10 | 中泰证券 | 闻学臣,... | 买入 | 用友网络(6005... 用友网络(600588)
投资要点
投资事件:2023年三季报:(1)前三季度收入57.08亿元,同比增长2.0%,归母净利润亏损10.30亿元,扣非归母净利润亏损11.36亿元;(2)第三季度收入23.38亿元,同比增长13.6%,归母净利润亏损1.85亿元,扣非归母净利润亏损1.96亿元。
第三季度业绩显著改善,经营情况优化。公司今年上半年收入增速-4.37%,而第三季度收入规模达23.38亿元,增速达13.6%,明显高于上半年增速。从订单角度来看,公司前三季度新签合同金额53.4亿元,同比增长10.3%,比半年度提高了7.2个百分点,其中第三季度新签合同金额达到22.2亿元,增速达到22.3%,呈现明显加速趋势。新签合同增速从今年6月份起已经连续4个月超过20%,下游需求持续释放,公司新签订单维持高增长趋势。
云服务快速增长,云战略加速落地。报告期内,公司云服务呈现持续高增长趋势,云业务相关合同负债达到22.4亿元,同比增长13.7%,订阅相关合同负债达到15.2亿元,同比增长40.6%。从云服务收入结构来看,大型企业市场前三季度收入258,648万元,增速6.1%,第三季度收入107,458万元,增速22.5%;中型企业市场前三季度收入51,514万元,增速37.5%,第三季度收入20,714万元,增速61.1%;小微企业市场云订阅收入34,828万元,增速25.8%,第三季度收入11,956万元,增速21.6%;政府类市场前三季度收入51,514万元,增速37.5%,第三季度收入20,714万元,增速61.1%。各条云业务线均实现良好成长性,公司云战略加速落地。
发布员工持股计划,彰显企业发展信心。公司发布员工持股计划,发行8000万股,价格为9.08元/股。根据考核要求,2023年-2025年收入分别不低于106.5亿元、130亿元和162.5亿元。据考核目标测算,未来三年公司收入复合增速将不低于20.6%。收入端有望持续高增长,彰显公司发展信心。
投资建议:由于宏观经济因素影响,公司组织结构调整,公司加大研发投入等因素影响,我们对公司盈利预测进行调整。调整前,我们预计公司2023/2024年收入分别为136.15/171.72亿元,净利润分别为12.20/17.52亿元。调整后,我们预计公司2023/2024/2025年收入分别为106.81/130.50/163.15亿元,净利润分别为3.25/7.46/13.00亿元,对应PS分别为5.5/4.5/3.6倍。考虑公司业绩维持高增长以及PS估值处于较低水平,给予公司“买入”评级。
风险提示:业务发展不及预期,政策落地缓慢 |
2023-10-30 | 招银国际 | Saiy... | 持有 | 用友网络(6005... 用友网络(600588)
Yonyou reported (28 Oct) mixed 3Q23 results: revenue was RMB2.3bn (+14 %YoY), in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates, and demonstrated animprovement from -5% YoY decline in 1H23, thanks to the gradual wear off ofreorganizational impact. 3Q23 net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders wasRMB185mn; although it narrowed from that of RMB284mn in 3Q22, it missedconsensus of a loss of RMB138mn, which we attribute to the 4.3ppt miss onGPM, which came in at 50.9% (3Q22: 49.9%). We upgrade the stock from SELLto HOLD given likely better outlook on revenue growth and margin improvementin 4Q23 with the wear off of reorganizational impact, but overall macro andenterprises’ budget pressure takes time to relieve, and we await more concreteevidence to become more positive. Our TP of RMB16.45 is based on 5.5xEV/Sales (was 6.0x) on 2023E revenue, in line with the one-year mean.
Inflection point on cloud revenue growth appeared…In 3Q23, cloudservices revenue was RMB1.6bn, up 28% YoY (1H23: 2.0% YoY) and ERPrevenue fell 10% YoY to RMB713mn. Cloud service revenue for large /midsized enterprise came in at RMB1.1bn/162mn for 3Q23, with respectivegrowth of 22%/61% YoY, improving from -3%/+25% YoY in 1H23.Management highlighted that new contract value growth was over 20% YoYeach month for four consecutive months since June 2023 vs. -6% YoY in5M23, and cumulative contract value for large enterprises reachedRMB3.0bn/1.27bn in 9M23/3Q23, up 17/29% YoY, which both demonstratedan improvement in fundamentals, in our view.
…but concrete margin improvement likely takes time. GPM improved1.0ppt to 50.9% in 3Q23, driven by healthy revenue growth, but was 4.3pptsshy of consensus forecast due to greater-than-expected impact fromorganizational change (especially for large enterprise projects). As foroperating expenses, S&M expenses grew 20% YoY in 9M23 (30.3% of totalrevenue, +4.7ppts YoY), administrative expenses up 1% YoY in 9M23(14.0% of revenue, -0.2ppt YoY), and R&D expenses grew 1% YoY in 9M23(26.2% of total revenue, -0.3ppt YoY). We estimate ARR contribution forcloud revenue to be stable YoY at around 32% for Yonyou (vs. >60% forKingdee) in 2023, and we believe an increase in ARR contribution is vital todrive the unleash of operating leverage over the long term.
Cut target price to RMB16.45 but upgrade to HOLD. Yonyou’s share pricehas fallen 33% vs. -8% for CSI300 YTD, and we believe the market haspriced in the impact of the organizational changes. With a better revenuegrowth outlook compared with that in 1H23, further downside on stock pricecould be limited, but recovery on macro and enterprises’ digitalization budgetlikely still takes time to bring concrete improvement on Youyou’s top-linegrowth, and we await more concrete evidence to become more positive. |