新大洲Ａ(000571)公司资料

事件:据工信部网站24日消息,经国家制造强国建设领导小组会议审议,决定在国家制造强国建设领导小组下设立工业互联网专项工作组(简称专项工作组)。 投资要点 工作组负责统筹协调的全局性工作,后续资金和政策支持有望超预期。 专项工作组主要负责统筹协调我国工业互联网发展的全局性工作,审议推动工业互联网发展的重大规划、重大政策、重大工程专项和重要工作安排等。工信部部长苗圩任组长,成员包括来自发改委、科技部、财政部、教育部等24个部门的领导。 类似于2014年,国务院成立国家集成电路产业发展领导小组,负责集成电路产业推进工作的统筹,当年9月便成立集成电路大基金,迄今已撬动六千多亿投资基金,此外还有各类政策持续加码,为产业保驾护航。而集成电路仅是电子信息产业的基础硬件,在整个工业互联网中也只是其中一个细分领域,这样就已形成如此大的投资规模。我们认为,工业互联网专项小组的成立所能引发的资金支持和后续政策的加码有望超预期。 工业互联网为强国之路的基石。 工业互联网是连接工业全系统、全产业链、全价值链,支撑工业智能化发展的关键基础设施,是新一代信息技术与制造业深度融合所形成的新兴业态与应用模式,是互联网从消费领域向生产领域、从虚拟经济向实体经济拓展的核心载体。 当前全球制造业竞争日趋激烈:发达国家提出“制造业回归”,发力先进制造;而我国国内制造成本抬升,面临“中等收入陷阱”,大力发展高端先进制造业、实现产业优化升级势在必行。发展工业互联网已经成为主要国家抢占全球产业竞争新制高点、重塑工业体系的共同选择。我们认为,大力发展工业互联网,对推动信息产业和制造业的深度融合,加速产业升级、建设制造强国都具有重大而深远的意义。 我国工业互联网发展已具备基础,但仍缺少龙头企业。 目前我国已建成全球最大的4G网络,5G技术研发进展也在全球领先。同时,“中国制造2025”深入实施,一些重点领域取得了重大突破。总体来看,我国信息化和工业化融合的基础不断筑牢,深度不断拓展,工业互联网发展已经具备了比较好的基础。 不过目前来说,我国与发达国家相比,在工业互联网的发展还存在较大的差距,核心技术受制于人,关键平台综合能力不强,特别是缺乏具备综合解决方案和全领域覆盖能力的龙头企业。 例如在数控机床领域,国内企业使用的中高档机床的数控系统基本都是国外进口,德企、日企掌握着数控系统的最高水平。在工业机器人领域,机器人本体和伺服、控制器已国产化,但减速机依然被日本的纳博和哈默尼克垄断。我们认为,只有关键技术的突破才能实现全方位智能制造。 人、机、系统全面互联,基础设备商和平台型系统集成商将受益。 工业互联网的实质是依靠对制造业不同环节植入不同传感器, 进而不断进行实时感知和数据收集, 然后借助于数据陆续对工业环节进行准确化的有效控制, 最终实现效率提高的目的。 感知设备市场进口替代空间巨大。虽然我国的传感器产业已基本形成,但适用于工业互联网的智能传感器几乎被国外企业所垄断,进口替代空间巨大;根据中国信息通信院预测,2019年中国智能传感器市场规模将达到137亿美元,本土化率将从2015年的13%提升到2019年的27%。 控制端支撑着工业和信息的融合深化,看好深度行业理解与平台型系统集成商。我们认为平台型工厂总包商相比单纯的软件商在国内更具可行性和发展前景,此外具有产业协同能力、对行业深度理解的集成商也有望胜出。 执行端工业机器人国产化程度低,看好专注核心零部件技术的企业。据工信部赛迪研究院称,当前中国市场工业机器人国产自主品牌份额不到10%,这主要受制于减速机等核心零部件技术的缺乏,进而导致没有成本和价格优势。我们看好专注于核心零部件技术研发的企业,一旦技术实现突破,有望成为进口替代的首选。 投资建议与推荐标的:我们看好国家政策+市场双轮驱动,国产企业进口替代加速的企业。推荐国产工业机器人龙头--机器人;机器人核心零部件减速机制造商--上海机电、双环传动。建议关注天奇股份、黄河旋风(明匠智能)、埃斯顿、克来机电。 风险提示:政策低于预期、智能制造行业产能过剩、技术进步不及预期。

生物识别板块 新三板生物识别板块本周共有7家公司有过交易。智臻智能(834869.OC)以1049万元的周成交量居生物识别板块首位。涨跌幅方面,盛世华安(838280.OC)以6.67%的涨幅居涨幅榜首位,博雅科技(430082.OC)以16.85%的跌幅居跌幅榜首位。 工业机器人板块 新三板工业机器人板块本周共有7家公司有过交易。伯朗特(430394.OC)以660万元的周成交量居工业机器人板块首位。涨跌幅方面,本周仅有沃迪智能(830843.OC)上涨,涨幅2.11%,4只股票下跌,科慧科技(831045.OC)以7.72%的跌幅居跌幅榜首位。 新能源汽车板块 本周新三板新能源汽车板块共27家企业有交易。其中国电能源(837254.OC)以1668万元的成交额位居板块之首,其次分别是三和能源(833891.OC)和贝特瑞(835185.OC)。涨跌幅方面,三和能源(833891.OC)以76.19%的涨幅位居板块涨幅榜之首;深蓝股份(836050.OC)以65.41%的跌幅位居板块跌幅榜之首。 风险提示 股市有风险,投资需谨慎

We invited Mr. Chen Ran, Deputy General Manager of Gongkong (a well-knownthird-party consulting firm specializing in China’s IA market) to be present at ourAccess China Conference 2018on 10January in Beijing. We summarize belowour key takeaways: 2017ended on a strong note; 4Q beats expectations Preliminary data from Gongkong shows that China’s IA market demand was up15-16% YoY, with strong growth in 3Q sustained in 4Q. Such robust demand, inour view, beats expectations as the market previously expected 4Q growth to slowdown on high comparison base. Also, Gongkong noted that due to already betterthan-expected order intakes in 9M17, some industry players intentionally pushedsome 4Q orders to 2018, leaving enough room for growth in the coming quarters.Therefore, strong demand growth will likely be sustained at least in 1H18. Demand driver has shifted to industry upgrade...Gongkong believes the key drivers for the strong IA demand in 2017include: 1)industry upgrades in low-to-mid-end manufacturing sectors; 2) rising labor costs;and 3) improvement in end-customers’ profitability. In the past, new capacityexpansion used to be the key driver for China’s IA demand but now industryupgrade has become and will continue to be the predominant driver. ...which means it’s structural and the cycle may last longerAlthough China introduced automation products 30years ago, the realautomation upgrade cycle in fact only started since 2014. Experiences fromdeveloped countries suggest it typically takes 10-15years to complete anautomation upgrade cycle but in China the cycle may last longer. This is mainlybecause China has a much more diversified and complicated manufacturingsector compared to most of the other developed economies. For example,automobile and electronic manufacturing, the two dominant verticals for IAdemand in other developed countries, only drive 30-40% of China’s total IAdemand. Sectors like textile machinery, metallurgy, public facilities, etc. used tobe China’s manufacturing foundation and they will lead this round of automationupgrade. In fact, such a trend is really taking place in these verticals.

Domestic smartphone brands maintaining strong momentum While growth in the globalsmartphone market has plateaued, Chinese smartphone brands have maintained stronggrowth momentum. Domestic smartphone brands represented by Huawei, Oppo, Vivo andXiaomi maintained YoY volume growth of 20%-30% during 9M17, with the overall industrychain also maintaining relatively high growth. Optical: leading manufacturers to be first to benefit from dual camera penetration andadoption of 3D sensing The technological entry barriers for the single camera module industryare not particularly high, and it is a typical capital and labor intensive industry. Dual camerademand has surged in 2017, causing the industry to become more technology intensive. In thedual camera market, only leading players have managed to maintain high shipment volumeswhile continuously optimizing their product structure. Their market shares are likely to expandfurther as the penetration rate of dual cameras increases at a quickening pace. Apple (AAPLUS) has taken the lead in offering 3D sensing in its devices, and the Chinese smartphoneindustry chain has started to follow this trend; leading manufacturers with an edge in technologyare likely to be the first to benefit. Handset cameras typically have a short innovation cycle andare set to benefit from the development of AR, VR and AI technologies. Haptics: downstream fingerprint recognition demand still robust Driven by thepopularization of infinity smartphone displays, upcoming development of fingerprint recognitiontechnology might be seen in two key directions: in terms of fingerprint sensing, currently usedcapacitive scanners might be replaced by optical and ultrasonic scanners; in terms of theposition of the fingerprint scanner, the current external scanners might be turned into hiddenones. Although Apple has innovatively offered a Face ID function which does not use fingerprintrecognition, we believe that as the most natural way to unlock a smartphone, fingerprintrecognition is unlikely to be phased out in the medium term. Furthermore, if breakthroughs aremade regarding fingerprint recognition in infinity displays, the fingerprint recognition industrymight see a new phase of growth. Acoustics: integrated hardware design might become a trend to improve userexperience Currently any attention to smartphone acoustic components is focused on soundquality and water proof features. While fulfilling smartphone manufacturers’ needs, upstreamcomponent makers have also continued to push forward technological innovation, with MEMStechnology increasingly adopted in handsets’ microphones, speakers and receivers; inaddition, the integrated design of acoustic, RF and haptic components is also likely to becomean industry trend going forward. Casing: non-metallic materials to prevail in the age of 5G networks With the arrival of 5Gnetworks and the popularization of wireless charging, the development of smartphone casingmaterials is now subject to some new requirements. Glass and ceramics appear to be the bestsubstitutes so far with glass casing likely to take off first. Investment highlights We suggest watching Sunny Optical (2382HK), Q Tech (1478HK),AAC Tech (2018HK), BYD Electronics (285HK) and Tongda Group (698HK) as they havefirst-tier domestic smartphone brands as key clients. Key risks include lower-than-expected smartphone sales volume downstream, the failure forproduct price declines to be passed on to suppliers which might hurt companies’ profitability,and Rmb exchange rate volatility.