浙江鼎力(603338)公司资料

浙江鼎力(603338) Zhejiang Dingli (Dingli) announced over the weekend that it plans to spendRMB1.7bn to build a new production base for 20k units of new energy aerial workplatform (AWP). We understand that the entire capacity will be for scissors lifts,given the rising demand for electric and advanced models in the overseas. Weestimate the new capacity will add 30% capacity in 2026-27E. With net cash of~RMB3bn based on our estimate, Dingli has sufficient internal resources tofinance the capex without the need to go for equity financing. While there will beno earnings contribution before 2026E, we believe the expansion plan will helpfurther enhance Dingli’s global competitiveness. Maintain BUY with unchangedtarget price of RMB70 (18x 2024E P/E, 1SD below the historical average of31x). Meanwhile, we believe Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH, BUY), the majorsupplier of hydraulic components and motors, will also benefit from Dingli’scapacity expansion over the medium term. New capacity and sales contribution: Dingli’s board of directors approvedon 22 Mar a plan to construct a new production base for 20k units of newenergy AWP. Dingli estimates it will take 36 months to complete theconstruction. We see chance that the capacity will commence earlier thanplanned, given the previous capacity expansion experience. Dingliestimates that, under normal circumstances, the annual sales contributionfrom the new capacity could reach ~RMB2.5bn. Location of the new capacity: Dingli currently has five production basesin Deqing, Zhejiang. The site area has been fully utilized. Therefore, Dingliwill need to acquire a piece of new land in Deqing for the planned newcapacity. Capex: The total budget is estimated at RMB1.7bn, which include theacquisition of land, construction work and equipment procurement. Key risks: (1) Further intensified competition in China’s AWP market; (2)slowdown of overseas demand; and (3) sharp rebound of RMB rate.

浙江鼎力(603338) 投资要点 拟投资17亿元建设新生产基地，新能源高机产能有望进一步扩张 2024年3月22日公司发布公告，拟以自筹资金17亿元投资新建年产20,000台新能源高空作业平台项目。该项目位于浙江省德清县雷甸镇，与现有产能位置近，建设周期3年，达产后产值约25亿元。按单台均价12.5万元计算，我们判断该项目以剪叉式高机为主。截至目前，公司五期工厂（即年产4,000台大型智能高位高空平台项目）已经建成投产，达产产值38亿元，以高米数臂式/剪叉产品为主，随公司臂式产品在海外推广开来、工厂产能释放，未来3年业绩成长性有保障。新建项目有望承接五期工厂，为公司中长期成长性提供进一步的支持和保障。 拟收购CMEC股权实现100%持股，北美市场拓展提速 2023年10月公司发布公告，拟以自筹资金继续收购美国CMEC公司50.2%股权，收购完成后将实现对CMEC100%控股。CMEC为美国本土品牌，深耕当地市场多年，已具备一定品牌知名度和客户粘性，销售团队成熟。鼎力收购CMEC，有望在北美市场经营取得更多自主权，凭借CMEC的品牌和渠道更快地推广新品，拓展市场。 管理层增持，彰显成长信心 2023年3月公司发布《关于公司董事、董事会秘书增持公司股份计划暨公司“提质增效重回报”行动方案的公告》，公司董事、董事会秘书梁金女士拟以400-500万元人民币增持公司股份，实施期限为增持计划披露的6个月内，增持未设置价格区间，计划彰显了管理层对公司成长的信心与价值的认可。我们认为鼎力代表了中国高空作业设备出海最高水平，产品品质在海外认可度逐年提升。在2024年国际高空作业平台评选活动（IAPA）中，公司作为唯一入围的中国企业，上榜4大奖项，并最终荣获剪叉及桅柱大奖。未来随新建产能释放、海外布局趋于完善，我们看好公司中长期成长性。 盈利预测与投资评级：我们维持2023-2025年归母净利润预测为18.6/22.0/26.3亿元（暂不考虑全部收购CMEC股权并表的影响），当前市值对应PE分别为15/13/11倍，维持“买入”评级 风险提示：市场竞争加剧、汇率波动风险、新品下游接受度不及预期。

浙江鼎力(603338) 投资要点 归母净利润同比+48%超预期，受益海外拓展与汇兑收益 公司发布业绩预告：预计2023年实现归母净利润18.6亿元，同比增长48%，扣非归母净利润18.0亿元，同比增长46%。单Q4实现归母净利润5.6亿元，同比增长48%，扣非归母净利润5.6亿元，同比增长43%。我们判断公司业绩高速增长，主要系（1）出口淡季不淡，海外收入占比提升，（2）公司于2023年10月收购CMEC24.8%股权，持股比例从25.0%提升至49.8%，新增确认投资收益，（3）欧元升值带来汇兑收益。展望2024年，随五期工厂产能落地，高端臂式出海，公司业绩有望保持稳健增长。 拟收购CMEC股权实现100%持股，北美市场拓展提速 2023年10月公司发布公告，拟以自筹资金继续收购美国CMEC公司50.2%股权，收购完成后将实现对CMEC100%控股。CMEC为美国本土品牌，深耕当地市场多年，已具备一定品牌知名度和客户粘性，销售团队成熟。鼎力收购CMEC，有望在北美市场经营取得更多自主权，凭借CMEC的品牌和渠道更快地推广新品，拓展市场。 五期工厂扩产推进顺利，臂式放量出海前景可期 2023年上半年，公司加大臂式产品销售力度，收入占比达38.0%；电动款销量占比达76.6%，电动化程度进一步提升；臂式产品结构优化抬升盈利能力，综合毛利率达26.3%，较2022年全年提升5.6pct，海外市场推广顺利，收入同比增长89.1%，增速亮眼。公司将臂式产品作为未来主要产品，瞄准海外市场。臂式产品在逐步放量，出海持续推进的背景下，有望形成收入占比超越剪叉，海外占比超越国内的新常态，成为业绩主要驱动力。产能扩张方面，五期工厂正待投产，投产后将增强差异化优势，达产产值约38亿元，有望解决产能瓶颈，打开公司成长空间，业绩持续增长有保障。 盈利预测与投资评级：公司2023年业绩超预期，且考虑产能释放与海外臂式放量，我们上调2023-2025年归母净利润预测为18.6（原值16.0）/22.0（原值17.5）/26.3（原值21.1）亿元（暂不考虑全部收购CMEC股权并表的影响），当前市值对应PE分别为14/11/10倍，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示：市场竞争加剧、汇率波动风险、新品下游接受度不及预期。

浙江鼎力(603338) Dingli’s net profit in 3Q23 surged 53% YoY to RMB462mn, which is way aboveour expectation. The surprise came from the 11.5ppt YoY gross margin expansionto 43.8%, driven by strong sales of boom lifts and rising contribution fromoverseas. We revise up our 2023E/24E/25E earnings forecast by 15%/8%/4%(8%/7%/4% above consensus), largely due to higher margin assumptions. Webelieve wide range of product offerings, together with clear strategies inoverseas including the penetration into tier-one leasing companies in the USand the expansion to emerging countries, will help Dingli differentiate itself frompeers. We revise up our TP to RMB70, after rolling over our base year to 2024E(based on 18x 2024E P/E which is 1SD below the historical average of 31x).Trading at 12x 2024E P/E, we see the risk/reward profile is highly attractive.Reiterate BUY. Dingli remains one of the key picks in our universe. An impressive set of results in 3Q23. Revenue grew 34% YoY toRMB1.64bn in 3Q23, driven by strong growth in overseas (70% of totalrevenue, up from 63% in 1H23). Of the overseas revenue in 3Q23,Europe/US/other regions accounted for 35%/35%/30% (previously:40%/40%/20%). Gross margin surprisingly expanded 11.5ppt YoY (11.7pptQoQ) to 43.8%, which was driven by strong sales of boom lifts and risingcontribution from overseas. Selling & distribution expense ratio expanded2ppt YoY to 5.8% but largely due to higher overseas sales. All these boosteda 121% YoY increase in EBIT in 3Q23. Dingli reported net finance expenseof RMB62mn (versus income of RMB74mn in 3Q22), due to the volatility ofFX rate during the quarter. Net profit in 3Q23 grew 53% YoY to RMB462mn.Operating cash inflow surged 81% YoY to RMB694mn. In 9M23, net profitgrew 48% YoY to RMB1.29bn (76% of our full year estimates). Boom lift remains the key growth driver. Boom lift revenue surged 1.9xYoY to RMB730mn in 3Q23. This is the first time that revenue from boomlift exceeded that of scissor lift (RMB700mn in 3Q23). For boom lift,overseas sales ratio in 9M23 increased to 45% (previously 30%). Dingliexpects the overseas sales ratio will exceed 50% in 2024E. Furthermore,given that boom lift in overseas carries higher gross margin (>40%)compared with China’s market, higher overseas sales will boost grossmargin going forward. Key risks: (1) Further intensified competition in China’s AWP market; (2)slowdown of overseas demand; and (3) sharp rebound of RMB rate.