| 流通市值:2523.98亿 | 总市值:3044.92亿 | ||
| 流通股本:24.73亿 | 总股本:29.84亿 |
药明康德最近3个月共有研究报告6篇,其中给予买入评级的为5篇,增持评级为1篇,中性评级为0篇,减持评级为0篇,卖出评级为0篇;
| 发布时间 | 研究机构 | 分析师 | 评级内容 | 报告标题 | ||
| 本期评级 | 评级变动 | |||||
| 2026-04-29 | 招银国际 | Jill Wu,Benchen Huang | 买入 | 维持 | 1Q26 results: small molecule D&M fuelling overall growth | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) WuXi AppTec released better-than-expected 1Q26 financial results. Revenuegrew by 28.8% YoY to RMB12.4bn with continuing operations revenue increasingby 39.4% YoY, while adj. non-IFRS attributable net profit surged 71.7% YoY toRMB4.6bn. 1Q26 revenue/ adj. net profit represent 24.1%/ 25.6% of our full-yearforecasts, respectively, significantly higher than the historical average of 18-20%.As of 1Q26, backlog for continuing operations grew by 23.6% YoY (+29% YoY ifexcl. FX fluctuations) to RMB59.8bn, with new orders signed in 1Q26 growing byover 25%. Mgmt. maintained full-year guidance, projecting 2026 revenue to reachRMB51.3-53.0bn, with revenue from continuing operations to grow by 18-22%YoY. Adj. net profit margin is expected to remain stable. Mgmt. indicated plans toraise the guidance in due course based on future business developments. CRDMO model to capture global blockbuster opportunities. Within thismodel, drug discovery and development services continuously funnel projectsto downstream. The Company delivered +420,000 new compounds over thepast 12 months, converted 83 projects from R to D, and added nine new PhIIIand commercial projects in 1Q26. This funnel model, which covers a widerange of therapeutic areas and a large customer base globally, allows theCompany to identify industry trends and build capacity in advance. As aresult, this approach has enabled WuXi AppTec to capitalize on commercialopportunities for multiple global blockbuster products, including oral COVID-19 drugs and peptides/ small-molecule GLP-1 drugs. Benefiting from oralGLP-1 drugs, revenue from small molecule D&M surged by 80.1% YoY in1Q26, creating a new growth engine for the Company. As a natural extensionof CRDMO model, TIDES saw 1Q26 revenue growth impacted by the pacingof product deliveries, resulting in a modest 6.1% YoY increase. However,based on a robust backlog, mgmt. expects full-year revenue for this segmentto grow by ~40%, reflecting mgmt's confidence in the TIDES business. Continued capacity expansion. Driven by growing global demand, WuXiAppTec plans to bring the construction of new Changzhou site ahead ofschedule, which will house both small molecule and TIDES capacity. Mgmt.targets the total solid-phase synthesis reactor volume to reach 130k liters bythe end of 2026, up from 100k liters at the end of 2025. Despite theuncertainties from the Middle East, the strategic cooperation agreementsigned with the Saudi government last Oct is proceeding as planned, a keycomponent of the Company's long-term strategy to build global capabilitiesand capacity. Mgmt. forecasts 2026 capex to be RMB6.5-7.5bn, representinga YoY increase of 17.3-35.4%. We believe that WuXi AppTec's mature globalCRDMO network and ongoing expansions will further reinforce its leadingposition in the global pharmaceutical outsourcing industry. Maintain BUY. To factor into the strong momentum of small molecule D&Mbusiness, we lift our earnings forecasts, expecting revenue to grow by 15.2%/16.3%/ 14.8% YoY (for continuing operations: 20.6%/ 16.3%/ 14.8% YoY)and adj. net profit to grow by 26.2%/ 18.0%/ 15.8% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E,respectively. Hence, we raise our DCF-based TP from RMB133.00 toRMB143.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged). | ||||||
| 2026-04-26 | 国信证券 | 彭思宇,陈曦炳,凌珑 | 增持 | 维持 | 2025年年报点评:业绩创历史新高,TIDES业务动能强劲 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 核心观点 2025年收入、利润创历史新高,在手订单充沛。2025年公司实现营收454.6亿元(+15.8%),归母净利润191.5亿元(+102.7%),经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润149.6亿元(+41.3%),公司营收、利润均创历史新高。其中,四季度单季度营收126.0亿元(+9.2%),单季度归母净利润70.8亿元(+142.5%),单季度扣非归母净利润37.2亿元(+12.5%)。截止2025年12月底,公司持续经营业务在手订单为580.0亿元(+28.8%),为未来业绩增长奠定基础。 化学业务:小分子业务基石稳固,TIDES业务成增长引擎。1)小分子业务基石稳固,2025年化学业务实现收入364.7亿元(+25.5%)。其中,小分子R到D转化分子310个,为下游持续引流,小分子D&M业务收入199.2亿元(+11.4%),小分子D&M管线累计新增839个分子,管线总数达到3452个,商业化和临床III期阶段项目全年增加22个。2025年底,小分子原料药反应釜总体积已提升至超4,000kL,且常州、泰兴及金山原料药基地均以零缺陷成功通过FDA现场检查,为长期发展夯实基础。2)TIDES业务增长强劲,2025年收入113.7亿元(+96.0%),在手订单同比增长20.2%,产能建设同步推进,泰兴多肽产能于2025年9月提前完成建设,公司多肽固相合成反应釜总体积已提升至超100,000L,为未来业绩增长奠定基础。 测试业务和生物学业务:逐步回暖。2025年测试业务实现收入40.4亿元(+4.7%),其中药物安全性评价业务收入同比增长4.6%,新分子业务占比提升至30%以上。2025年生物学业务实现收入26.8亿元(+5.2%),其中体外综合筛选和体内药理学共同驱动收入增长,新分子业务占比提升至30%以上。随着市场环境改善,两项业务有望延续回暖趋势,且新分子业务占比提升,有望进一步优化收入结构。 风险提示:景气度下行风险;地缘政治风险;汇兑风险;价格风险。 | ||||||
| 2026-04-04 | 华源证券 | 刘闯,徐子悦 | 买入 | 首次 | 聚焦核心业务,2025年收入利润再创新高 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 投资要点: 药明康德为全球医药及生命科学行业提供一体化、端到端的新药研发和生产服务。 公司具有独特的“CRDMO”业务模式,服务范围涵盖化学药研发和生产、生物学研究、临床前测试和临床研发等领域。2025年收入和利润再创历史新高,实现营业收入454.6亿元,同比增长15.8%,持续经营业务收入同比增长21.4%;归母净利润191.5亿元(同比+102.6%);扣非归母净利润132.41亿元(同比+32.6%);公司披露经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润149.6亿元(同比+41.3%)。毛利率实现47.6%(同比+6.1pct),经调整Non-IFRS净利率32.9%(同比+5.9pct)。 TIDES业务保持高速增长,D&M有望放量,安评业务保持亚太领先地位。2025年化学板块实现收入364.7亿元(同比+25.5%),其中TIDES业务收入113.7亿元(同比+96.0%);小分子CDMO管线持续扩张,D&M业务收入199.2亿元(同比+11.4%)。2025年测试板块实现收入40.4亿元(同比+4.7%),其中药物安全性评价业务收入同比增长4.6%,持续保持亚太行业领先地位。 在手订单持续增长,推进产能建设,公司后续业绩稳定或具备韧性。截至2025年12月底,持续经营业务在手订单达到580.0亿元(同比+28.8%);其中TIDES在手订单同比增长20.2%,TIDES D&M服务客户数同比提升25%,服务分子数量同比提升45%,彰显高景气度。加速推进全球产能建设,2025年底,小分子原料药反应釜总体积已提升至超4,000kL;2025年9月,公司提前完成泰兴多肽产能建设。公司多肽固相合成反应釜总体积已提升至超100,000L。公司2025年资本开支为55.38亿元,公司预计2026年资本开支将达到65-75亿元。公司预计2026年公司整体收入将达到513-530亿元,持续经营业务收入同比增长18%-22%。公司将更加聚焦CRDMO核心战略,加速全球化能力建设和产能投放。 盈利预测与评级:我们预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为174.05/207.07/249.94亿元,同比增速分别为-9.11%/18.97%/20.70%,当前股价对应的PE分别为17/14/12倍。我们选取药明合联、凯莱英、康龙化成为可比公司,鉴于公司将更加聚焦CRDMO核心战略,加速全球化能力建设和产能投放,持续提高生产经营效率,利润率稳定且具备韧性。首次覆盖,给予“买入”评级。 风险提示:国际环境变化的风险,药物研发市场增速不及预期的风险,行业竞争加剧风险,产能投入进度低于预期的风险。 | ||||||
| 2026-03-25 | 中邮证券 | 盛丽华,陈灿 | 买入 | 维持 | 2025年年报点评:26年指引超预期,TIDES业务持续亮眼 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 事件 公司公布25年年报,全年收入454.6亿元(+15.8%),归母净利润191.5亿元(+102.6%),Non-IFRS归母净利润149.6亿元(+41.3%)25Q4收入126.0亿元(+9.2%),归母净利润70.8亿元(+142.5%),Non-IFRS归母净利润44.2亿元(+36.5%)。业绩符合预期。 核心观点 Chemistry业务增速稳定,TIDES业务持续亮眼 25年Chemistry收入364.7亿元(+25.5%)、毛利率52.3%(+5.9pct,经调整Non IFRS毛利率,下同);其中小分子D&M收入199.2亿元(+11.4%)、TIDES收入113.7亿元(+96.0%)。截至25年底TIDES在手订单同比增长20.2%,较三季报公告截至Q3末的17.1%增速有所提升。25Q4收入104.9亿元(+17.1%)、毛利率54.8%(+6.4pct)。其中小分子D&M收入56.8亿元(+5.4%)、TIDES收入35.5亿元(+56.6%)。 Testing和Biology业务企稳,毛利率仍有承压 Testing业务25年收入40.4亿元(+4.7%)、毛利率30.5%(-5.7pct),全年恢复正增长,价格因素仍影响毛利率。Biology业务25年收入26.8亿元(+5.5%)、毛利率37.0%(-1.9pct);25Q4收入7.3亿元(+2.8%)、毛利率36.6%(-4.2pct),毛利率同样受市场竞争影响,公司保持灵活定价策略。 盈利能力环比保持稳定,26年指引增速超预期 25年毛利率为48.2%(+6.6pct),Non-IFRS归母净利率为32.9%(+5.9pct);25Q4毛利率为51.3%(+8.1pct),Non-IFRS归母净利率为35.1%(+7.0pct),环比Q3基本持平。 公司截至25年底持续经营业务在手订单580亿元(+28.8%)。指引26年整体收入513-530亿元,持续经营业务收入同比增长18-22%保持稳定且有韧性的经调整non-IFRS归母净利率水平。 盈利预测和投资建议 预计公司26/27/28年收入分别为521.6/605.9/694.5亿元,同比增长14.7%/16.2%/14.6%;归母净利润为163.9/192.8/223.9亿元同比增长-14.4%/17.7%/16.1%,对应PE分别17/15/12倍。药明康德为全球领先的“一体化、端到端”的新药研发服务平台,考虑公司核心Chemistry业务有望维持较快增速、盈利能力也将稳步提升,维持“买入”评级。 风险提示: 地缘政治风险;产能投放进度不及预期;行业需求复苏不及预期竞争降价压力高于预期。 | ||||||
| 2026-03-25 | 开源证券 | 余汝意 | 买入 | 维持 | 公司信息更新报告:超额达成全年指引,2026年小分子CDMO将加速 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 2025年收入和利润再创历史新高,持续经营业务在手订单稳健增长 2025年公司实现营收454.56亿元,同比增长15.8%,持续经营业务收入同比增长21.4%;归母净利润191.51亿元,同比增长102.7%;经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润149.6亿元,同比增长41.3%,经调整Non-IFRS净利率达32.9%,同比提升5.9pct。单看2025年第四季度,公司实现营收125.99亿元,同比增长9.2%,环比增长4.5%;经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润44.19亿元,同比增长36.4%,环比增长4.7%。截至2025年底,公司持续经营业务在手订单达580.0亿元,同比+28.8%。考虑下游需求持续回暖以及小分子CDMO业务有望加速增长,我们上调2026和2027年的盈利预测(原预计归母净利润151.27/179.39亿元),并新增2028年的盈利预测,预计2026-2028年归母净利润为183.24/226.74/278.86亿元,EPS为6.14/7.60/9.35元,当前股价对应PE为14.3/11.6/9.4倍,维持“买入”评级。 小分子D&M业务保持强劲增长,TIDES业务高速增长 2025年公司化学业务实现营收364.7亿元,同比+25.5%。小分子D&M业务收入199.2亿元,同比+11.4%,其中2025年第四季度收入56.8亿元,同比+5.19%,环比+2.16%,2025年小分子D&M收入逐季递增。小分子D&M管线持续扩张,2025年新增分子839个,管线分子总计3452个。2025年TIDES业务实现营收113.7亿元,同比增长96.0%;截至2025年底,TIDES D&M服务客户数同比提升25%,服务分子数量同比提升45%,TIDES在手订单同比增长20.2%。 安评保持亚太领先,生物学业务持续引流,2026年保持业务快速增长2025年公司测试业务实现营收40.4亿元,同比恢复正增长+4.7%,药物安全性评价保持亚太领先地位;2025年生物学业务实现营收26.8亿元,同比恢复正增长+5.2%,持续为公司带来20%+的新客户。2026年公司预计整体收入513-530亿元,持续经营业务收入同比+18-22%,预计资本开支继续增长至65-75亿元。2026年公司将更加聚焦CRDMO核心战略,加速全球化能力建设和产能投放。 风险提示:中美贸易摩擦,市场竞争加剧,环保和安全生产风险。 | ||||||
| 2026-03-25 | 招银国际 | Jill Wu,Benchen Huang | 买入 | 维持 | Strong CDMO demand to fuel 2026 growth | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) WuXi AppTec reported impressive financial results for 2025, with revenuegrowing by 15.8% YoY (including 21.4% YoY growth for continuing operations)and adj. non-IFRS attributable net profit expanding at a remarkable 41.3% YoY.The Company's 2025 revenue and adj. net profit beat our estimates by 2.7% and18.2%, respectively. Looking ahead, mgmt. projects 2026 revenue to reach RMB51.3-53.0bn, along with 18-22% YoY revenue growth for continuing operations,while the adj. non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to remain stable. Strong CDMO demand. As of 4Q25, the backlog for WuXi AppTec’scontinuing operations grew by 28.8% YoY (or 34% on a constant currencybasis) to reach RMB58.0bn. Although this signifies a deceleration from+45.8% YoY growth recorded as of 3Q25, we note that such growth is highlycommendable given the already massive absolute base of backlog, clearlyindicating the consistently high demand from global customers, particularlyfor its CDMO services. As of 4Q25, backlog for TIDES increased by 20.2%YoY, accelerating from the +17.1% growth at the end of 3Q25. Mgmt.disclosed that the TIDES backlog has reached ~RMB20.0 bn. Based on thisfigure, we calculate that the backlog for other businesses booked YoYgrowth of 33.8% in 2025, and we believe the strong growth was primarilydriven by the small molecule D&M business. Supported by the robustdemand, mgmt. forecasts that the TIDES business will grow by 30-40% YoY(on a constant currency basis) in 2026, while the small molecule D&Mbusiness is also expected to experience accelerated growth. Early-stage businesses recovering with improvement in revenuegrowth. Within the chemistry segment, full-year revenue for small moleculedrug discovery services declined by 3.8% YoY (a marked improvement fromthe -28.7% YoY drop in 2024), with 2H25 seeing a narrowed decline of 2.2%YoY. Revenue from Testing segment grew by 4.7% YoY (vs -8.0% YoY in2024), driven by 8.8% YoY growth in 2H25. Similarly, revenue from Biologysegment increased by 5.2% YoY (vs -0.3% YoY in 2024). As the globalbiotech funding continues to recover, we believe the early-stage businessesare well-positioned to maintain this recovery momentum throughout 2026. Doubling down on global capacity expansion. WuXi AppTec's capex in2025 amounted to RMB5.54bn, representing a YoY surge of 38.5% (vs -27.5% YoY decline in 2024). To support ongoing global capacity build-outsand to capture future market opportunities, mgmt. anticipated 2026 capex toreach RMB6.5 - 7.5 bn, implying a YoY increase of 17.3% to 35.4%. Notably,the Company plans to further expand its solid-phase peptide synthesisreactor volume to 130,000 liters, serving as a strong indicator of the surgingmanufacturing demand for peptide and oligonucleotide drugs. Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB123.35 toRMB133.00 (WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), tofactor into the updated guidance and our positive demand outlook. We nowexpect revenue to grow by 13.7%/ 15.7%/ 13.4% YoY (for continuingoperations: 19.1%/ 15.7%/ 13.4% YoY) and adjusted non-IFRS net profit togrow by 19.9%/ 16.0%/ 13.6% YoY in 2026E/ 27E/ 28E, respectively. | ||||||
| 2026-01-19 | 中邮证券 | 盛丽华,陈灿 | 买入 | 维持 | 业绩超预期,Q4盈利能力维持稳定 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 事件 公司发布2025年业绩预告,25年营收454.6亿元(+15.8%,其中持续经营业务收入增速21.4%)、归母净利润191.5亿元(+102.7%)Non-IFRS归母净利润149.6亿元(+41.3%);25Q4收入126.0亿元(+9.2%)、归母净利70.8亿元(+142.5%)、Non-IFRS归母净利润44.2亿元(+36.5%)。业绩超预期。 核心观点 持续经营业务增速超预期,Q4收入环比增长 此前根据公司三季报指引25年全年收入435-440亿元,持续经营业务收入增速为17-18%,本次业绩预告全年持续经营业务收入增速为21.4%,超此前指引,25Q4收入在已剥离临床CRO和SMO业务(25Q3收入约为4.1亿元)基础上环比Q3仍有提升,预计TIDES等业务带动Chemistry业务维持快速增长。 Q4盈利能力环比稳定,26年仍有提升潜力 25年全年出售合联股权收益约41.6亿元、出售临床CRO和SMO业务收益为14.3亿元。Non-IFRS归母净利率来看25Q4表现稳定,达到35.1%略低于25Q3,较24Q4有较大幅度提升。考虑到26年大单带动下Chemistry业务仍将维持快速增长、毛利率提升趋势,在海外需求稳定恢复、国内即将迎来上游拐点背景下,26年盈利能力仍有提升潜力。 盈利预测与投资建议 预计公司25/26/27年收入分别为454.6/515.5/588.2亿元,同比增长15.8%/13.4%/14.1%;归母净利润为191.5/167.3/193.2亿元同比增长102.7%/-12.7%/15.5%,对应PE分别16/19/16倍。药明康德为全球领先的“一体化、端到端”的新药研发服务平台,考虑公司核心Chemistry业务有望维持较快增速、盈利能力也将稳步提升,维持“买入”评级。 风险提示: 地缘政治风险;产能投放进度不及预期;行业需求复苏不及预期竞争降价压力高于预期。 | ||||||
| 2025-10-28 | 中国银河 | 程培,谭依凡 | 买入 | 维持 | 药明康德2025年三季报业绩点评:持续聚焦CRDMO,再次上调全年指引 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 核心观点 事件:2025年10月26日,公司发布2025三季报。2025前三季度实现营业收入328.57亿元,同比18.6%,其中持续经营业务收入同比22.5%;归母净利润120.76亿元,同比84.8%;扣非净利润95.22亿元,同比42.51%。25Q3实现收入120.6亿元,同比15.3%,归母净利润35.14亿元,同比53.27%,扣非净利润39.40亿元,同比73.75%。公司同时发布公告,出售康德弘翼和津石医药100%股权,持续聚焦CRDMO业务模式。 在手订单高速增长,TIDES业务带动化学板块持续高增。截至2025年9月末,公司持续经营业务在手订单598.8亿元,同比41.2%。①化学业务:2025前三季度实现收入259.8亿元,同比29.3%,经调整毛利率51.3%,同比提升5.8pct。其中小分子D&M业务收入142.4亿元,同比14.1%。TIDES业务随着新增产能逐季度爬坡,2025年前三季度收入78.4亿元,同比121.1%,在手订单同比17.1%。②测试业务:2025前三季度实现收入41.7亿元,同比-9.74%。其中实验室分析与测试业务收入29.6亿元,同比2.7%。临床CRO&SMO业务收入12.1亿元,受市场价格因素影响,同比-6.4%。③生物学业务:2025前三季度实现收入19.5亿元,同比6.6%。 全球多元化经营确保业绩稳定,再次上调全年业绩指引。分地区来看,2025年前三季度公司来自美国客户收入221.5亿元,同比31.9%;来自欧洲客户收入38.4亿元,同比13.5%;来自中国客户收入50.4亿元,同比0.5%;来自日韩及其他地区客户收入14.2亿元,同比9.2%。从2024年生物安全法案到2025年中美关税冲突,公司海外业务增速依然强劲,证明了在全球产业链中的稳健地位。同时,公司再次上调全年的业绩增速指引,预计2025年持续经营业务收入重回双位数增长,增速从13-17%上调至17-18%,预计全年整体收入从425-435亿元上调至人民币435-440亿元。 投资建议:公司作为国内一体化CXO龙头,TIDES业务高景气有望带动公司业绩持续增长。参考公司上调的全年业绩指引,我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润为167.17、163.48、198.74亿元,同比增长76.9%、-2.2%、21.6%,当前股价对应2025-2027年PE为19/19/16倍,维持“推荐”评级。 风险提示:新签订单不及预期的风险;行业竞争加剧的风险;地缘政治风险。 | ||||||
| 2025-10-28 | 浦银国际证券 | 阳景,胡泽宇 | 买入 | 维持 | 3Q25业绩及新签订单增速再超预期,上调全年指引 | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) 公司3Q25业绩及新签订单增速明显好于市场预期,全年持续经营收入指引上调至17%-18%YoY增速。此外,早期业务已看到更多积极信号。维持“买入”评级,上调港股/A股目标价。 9M25持续经营收入+22.5%YoY,经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润+43.4%YoY,明显好于市场预期:公司9M25实现收入人民币328.6亿元(+18.6%YoY),其中持续经营业务收入为324.5亿元(+22.5%YoY),经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润105.4亿元(+43.4%YoY),均明显好于市场预期。就季度表现而言,3Q25收入为120.6亿元(+15.3%YoY,+8.2%QoQ),其中持续经营业务收入为120.4亿元(+19.7%YoY,+9.4%QoQ),同比增长持续强劲,主要由于小分子D&M收入和TIDES收入持续高速增长。经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润为42.2亿元(+42.0%YoY,+16.1%QoQ)。利润率方面,经调整Non-IFRS归母净利率进一步上升至35.0%(+6.6ppts YoY,+2.4ppts QoQ),主要得益于晚期及商业化项目的增加、生产工艺改进提高效率及新产能爬坡较预想的更为顺利。 小分子D&M收入、TIDES业务继续强劲驱动3Q25收入增长及拉升毛利率。3Q25Wuxi Chemistry持续实现靓丽的同比增速(+22.7%YoY,+8.6%QoQ),主要得益于小分子D&M收入持续增长(+9.2%YoY,+15.1%QoQ)以及TIDES收入持续强劲增长(+92.1%YoY,+19.6%QoQ)。截至9月底,TIDES在手订单同比增长17.1%YoY。此外,得益于生产工艺持续优化以及临床后期和商业化项目增长(3Q25新增3个临床3期、4个商业化项目)带来的产能效率不断提升,Wuxi Chemistry整体板块3Q25经调整Non-IFRS毛利率显著提升至55.2%(+7.0ppts YoY,+4.9ppts QoQ)。 在手订单数额再创新高至598.8亿元(+41.2%YoY),上调2025年持续经营收入指引至17%-18%YoY,整体收入由原先的425-435亿元上调至435-440亿元。管理层表示3Q25新签订单增速在18%左右,较2Q25(12%YoY)有所提速。9月底在手订单实现超40%的高速增长,主要由于小分子D&M业务新增订单强劲增长,受益于新兴热门领域的火热(GLP-1、PCSK9、疼痛管理、神经领域、自免领域等)。除了上述收入指引外,公司仍然维持经调整Non-IFRS归母净利率的指引,即较2024年进一步提升,管理层认为更多晚期项目、持续的生产工艺优化效率提升以及精细化运营,均将有助于公司逐步提升利润率。此外,由于Capex付款时间点的后延,今年Capex指引将从先前的70-80亿元下调至55-60亿元,使得今年自由现金流指引从此前的50-60亿元上调至80-85亿元。此外,由于海外产能建设进入后半期投入,预计明后年Capex将在2025年基础上明显提升。 非核心业务的进一步剥离有助于公司提升利润率。为聚焦CRDMO业务模式,专注药物发现、实验室测试及工艺开发和生产服务,并加速全球化能力和产能的投放,公司已于今年10月24日与高瓴签署相关协议出售其临床CRO及SMO业务子公司。由于上海康德弘翼处于轻微亏损状态(9M25净亏损7,545万元),药明津石处于微盈利状态(9M25净利润1.6亿元),我们认为这两项非核心业务的剥离有助于公司长期提升利润率。 其他更新:(1)早期业务目前正在恢复中,公司已从客户端观察到更多积极信号,包括实验室测试业务已连续两个季度恢复正增长并且3Q25在手订单增速呈双位数,生物学业务今年以来一直呈现同比正增长状态,资本市场的回暖(海外降息、国内二级投融资的火热)对客户新订单具有积极带动作用。(2)目前中美地缘政治摩擦未对公司业务造成影响。一方面,美国药品关税事件目前未对公司运营造成实际影响。另一方面,尽管美国参议院版本NDAA重新提及生物安全法案,但其后续立法程序仍存在诸多不确定性,并且该版本并未提及公司名字,因此目前未对公司运营造成影响。 维持“买入”评级,上调港股、A股目标价至134.5港元、人民币124.4元。基于更新的财报信息,我们仅微调2025E/2026E/2027E经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润。给予公司港股20x2026E PE目标估值(较过去3年平均值高0.7个标准差、较过去5年平均值低0.5个标准差)和15%的A/H溢价,得到新的港股目标价134.5港元、A股目标价人民币124.4元。 投资风险:地缘政治风险;融资环境恢复差于预期;竞争格局激烈。 | ||||||
| 2025-10-28 | 招银国际 | Jill Wu,Benchen Huang | 买入 | 维持 | Rising demand for small molecule D&M business | 查看详情 |
药明康德(603259) WuXi AppTec reported strong 3Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 15.3%YoY (including 19.7% YoY growth for continuing operations) and adj. non-IFRSnet profit surging by 42.0% YoY. Revenue from continuing operations in 9M25accounted for 73.8% of our full-year forecast, in line with historical average of72%, while adj. non-IFRS net profit in 9M25 represented 85.7% of our full-yearforecast, significant higher than the historical average of 72%. WuXi AppTecdelivered strong operational execution, despite ongoing macro uncertainties. Assuch, mgmt. further raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting total revenueto be RMB43.5-44.0bn (previously: RMB42.5-43.5bn) with revenue fromcontinuing operations to grow by 17-18% (previously: 13-17%). Mgmt. continuedto expect adj. non-IFRS net profit margin to expand in 2025. Encouraging demand growth in small molecule D&M business. As ofSept 2025, WuXi AppTec’s backlog from continuing operations reached RMB59.88bn with a strong YoY growth of 41.2%, accelerated from 37.2% YoY asof Jun 2025. In contrast, backlog for TIDES services grew by 17.1% YoY asat end-Sept 2025, slowing from 48.8% YoY seen as at end-Jun 2025. Thedivergence underscored the small molecule D&M business as a primarygrowth driver for backlog in 3Q25. With that, mgmt. expected acceleratedrevenue growth for this segment in 2026. Mgmt. noted that the Company’spipeline included multiple promising products targeting areas such as GLP-1, PCSK9, pain, neurology, and autoimmune diseases. Given that smallmolecule D&M accounted for 46% of total revenue in 2024, we believe it willbecome a key driver for the Company’s overall growth. To meet the risingcustomer demand, WuXi AppTec is actively expanding manufacturingcapacity in China, Singapore, the US, and Switzerland. Early-stage demand showing more signs of recovery, though a fullrebound will take time. In the Chemistry segment, revenue from drugdiscovery services declined 2.0% YoY in 3Q25, though sequential QoQimprovements were seen. Notably, the safety assessment services posted5.9% YoY and 13.2% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q25, a significant reboundfrom the 7.8% decline in 2Q25, suggesting a recovery in client demand andimproved pricing dynamics. Within the Biology segment, revenue grew 5.9%YoY in the quarter, consistent with the pace observed in 1H25. Mgmt.indicated that early signs of demand recovery are emerging, supported by arebound in China’s capital markets, robust global BD activity, and US interestrate cuts. However, a broad-based industry recovery will still take time. Giventhe high sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, we believe early-stagebusinesses within WuXi AppTec should have relatively high visibility over thenext two years, as market conditions normalize. Maintain BUY. We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB118.79 to RMB123.35(WACC: 9.39%, terminal growth: 2.00%; both unchanged), to factor in ourimproved outlook on the macro environment. We now expect revenue to growby 12.8%/ 10.7%/ 14.2% YoY (for continuing operations: 18.0%/ 15.0%/14.2% YoY) and adjusted non-IFRS net profit to grow by 19.6%/ 10.2%/13.3% YoY in 2025E/ 26E/ 27E, respectively. | ||||||